Stockton's pollsters said it was difficult to reach Hudson County voters and that they weighted race and ethnicity to compensate for the underrepresented groups. Reliably Democratic Hudson County, where Menendez built his political base, only comprised 1 percent of the poll's respondents despite being the fourth most populated of New Jersey's 21 counties. The Stockton poll, however, doesn't reflect significant representation from Hispanic and younger voters. It also found 52 percent of voters viewed him unfavorably. On Monday, a Stockton University poll of likely voters showed Menendez leading Hugin by only two points, well within the margin of error. But, as the undecided numbers show, there's still time for either candidate to capture more support," Jenkins said. "There's no denying that this is tighter than one would expect for an incumbent senator. The senator also has adequate time to unleash attack ads on his opponent, experts said. He has some work to do in his own party if he is to expand his margin before November," said Krista Jenkins, director of the Fairleigh Dickinson poll.Īlthough Menendez's results in the Democratic primary were unexpectedly dismal, Democratic voters are expected to show up in the November election to counter the risk of a Republican stealing the seat. As for Menendez, having a third of likely Democratic voters with unfavorable opinions about him is complicating his re-election efforts. "It looks like Hugin still has room to define himself to voters. Nearly one in five likely voters - including 22 percent of Democrats, 6 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independents - are undecided, the survey said.Īs Hugin boasts of bipartisan bona fides and carefully distances himself from the unpopular Trump, Menendez has struggled to break away five weeks before the November election. In the Fairleigh Dickinson poll, Menendez has a 6 point edge over Hugin among likely voters. "As voters learn more about Menendez's disgraceful record, we're confident remaining undecided voters will support Bob Hugin on Election Day," Stacy Schuster, the Republican's campaign manager, told CNBC. Hugin's campaign, meanwhile, chose to focus on other polls showing a tighter race. Menendez's campaign declined to comment on the new Quinnipiac poll. Earlier this year, the Senate Ethics Committee "severely admonished" Menendez. He was accused of exchanging gifts from a wealthy Florida eye doctor for political favors. Menendez won his party's nomination with an underwhelming primary victory and aims to salvage Democratic voters who are wary of him after his federal corruption trial last year, which ended in a mistrial. The importance of the Senate's partisan breakdown is playing out right now, as Republicans try to secure the 51 votes needed to confirm Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. The party cannot afford to lose any seat as it tries to stop Republicans from expanding their narrow majority in the chamber. The race has huge stakes for national Democrats. Menendez over Republican challenger Bob Hugin, but they certainly make it clear they are not fond of Menendez," said Mary Snow, a polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University poll. "New Jersey likely voters may prefer Sen. Only 34 percent of likely voters view Menendez favorably, versus 53 percent who see him unfavorably, according to the Quinnipiac survey. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin often leading by double digits in their re-election bids, and those are in states President Donald Trump carried in 2016. By comparison, polls have found Democratic Sens. Yet Menendez has just an 11-point lead in the most favorable poll for him of late. Electoral trends favor Democrats this year, and New Jersey hasn't elected a Republican senator in more than three decades. Menendez is still in for a fight, however. The Quinnipiac poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, while the Fairleigh Dickinson and Stockton surveys both have margins of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. A Stockton University survey of likely voters found a slimmer edge of 2 percentage points. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released Wednesday found a 5-percentage-point edge among likely voters for the senator. The result is likely to allow Menendez and national Democrats to let out a sigh of relief - however small - after two other surveys in recent days showed a tighter race.
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